Bitcoin RSI(5) momentum research compares a daily RSI threshold strategy with buy and hold using BTC/USD data from Coinbase. The saved active model opens when the 5-period RSI crosses above 70 and closes when it crosses back below 70; the second series is the passive Bitcoin benchmark. The rule treats a move into the overbought zone as a momentum hypothesis, not an instruction to buy every overbought market. Distinguish a fresh crossover from a condition that remains above 70 for several sessions when reproducing the analysis. Use the equity curve and trade history to examine false signals, losing runs and periods when the model misses a rebound. A backtest comparison does not establish that the rule will keep outperforming. Backtest results are historical, not a forecast or a guarantee. Compare sample dates, drawdown, trade count and turnover as well as return. Fees, slippage and signal-execution timing can change realized performance. This research is for information only, not investment advice.
Over an empirical backtest sample comprising 248 audited executions, this model achieved a cumulative net return of +35,532.4% (+65.0% compound annual growth rate). Trade execution efficiency registered a 40.7% win rate (relying on asymmetric payoff distribution to overcome lower win frequency), paired with an outstanding profit factor of 3.34. Downside risk analysis records a maximum historical drawdown of -19.0% (contained historical peak-to-trough drawdowns within acceptable systematic tolerances), while current drawdown stands at -4.1% from recent peak equity. Risk metrics reflect an annualized Sharpe ratio of 4.39 (exceptional risk-adjusted alpha) alongside an R² statistical fit score of 0.89 (89% consistency, indicating high equity curve linearity with controlled dispersion).
The quantitative profile demonstrates verifiable historical edge and balanced risk distribution suitable for systematic asset allocation.Strategies: 0
