Bitcoin October seasonality tests the historical pattern commonly called "Uptober" using BTC/USD monthly bars from Coinbase. This saved view selects October and plots its percentage performance, making it easier to compare positive and negative Octobers across the available history. Read the individual observations alongside the seasonality table. Win rate describes how often the selected month was positive; average return describes a different part of the distribution. Neither measure alone captures the size of losses or the influence of unusually strong years. Check the displayed start and end dates and the number of October observations before comparing results with another source. This analysis studies a recurring calendar window rather than a complete trading system. It does not establish an entry price, an exit price or a guaranteed October gain. Historical returns are not a forecast. Seasonality can change, and fees, slippage and execution timing can affect realized results. This page is research for information only, not investment advice.
Over an empirical backtest sample comprising 12 audited executions, this model achieved a cumulative net return of +487.7% (+15.9% compound annual growth rate). Trade execution efficiency registered a 75.0% win rate (demonstrating robust directional accuracy), paired with an outstanding profit factor of 16.92. Downside risk analysis records a maximum historical drawdown of -66.6% (elevated drawdown risk during market contractions requiring disciplined margin management), while current drawdown stands at -27.1% from recent peak equity. Risk metrics reflect an annualized Sharpe ratio of 15.04 (exceptional risk-adjusted alpha) alongside an R² statistical fit score of 0.93 (93% consistency, indicating high equity curve linearity with controlled dispersion).
Historical return drift exhibits negative expectancy or elevated drawdown during the tested interval; macro trend filters are recommended.
